April 3, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario
British Columbia’s construction sector experienced a modest overall contraction in 2024, as growth in the province’s residential sector, which was principally driven by demand for residential renovations, was not enough to offset a decline in activity on several major projects in the non-residential sector.
BuildForce Canada released its 2025–2034 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for British Columbia today. The outlook calls for moderate growth in residential activity to offset a small contraction in non-residential activity.
Although housing starts in the province are generally expected to trend downward across the forecast period as population growth slows and as housing affordability and land limitations influence growth, activity in the sector will be driven by strong growth in demand for residential renovations, which is projected to rise sharply across the forecast period.
The outlook for the non-residential sector is more variable. Activity is projected to ebb and flow through the short-term period, in line with high levels of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) construction and with the timing of work on major engineering construction projects. Growth moderates into 2031 as projects pass peak periods and end.
These trends combine to leave residential construction employment levels almost unchanged from 2024 levels by 2034, while non-residential construction employment levels increase by 10% over the decade.
It is important to note that the investment trends and employment projections presented in this scenario were developed with industry input prior to the emergence of potential trade tensions between Canada and the United States. This forecast therefore does not take into account the possible application of tariffs on Canadian exports to and imports from the United States, nor does it account for any resulting changes in trading patterns between Canada and its other key trading partners.
“Although construction activity over the entire decade is projected to increase only modestly, a closer look at the data tells a different story,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “Non-residential construction activity is projected to rise to a peak in 2027 as work is underway on several major engineering-construction projects and is sustained at an elevated level among ICI buildings construction. These trends could create significant pressures among critical trades and occupations.”
A full analysis of British Columbia’s construction industry requires detailed looks at not only the provincial market as a whole, but also at two key provincial sub-markets: the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island. Each has its own unique market conditions.
The Lower Mainland construction market, which includes Greater Vancouver, Fraser Valley, Sunshine Coast, Squamish, and Lillooet, accounts for approximately 57% of the province’s construction employment. The region reported a small overall gain in construction activity in 2024 as growth in the non-residential sector offset a slight decline in the residential sector.
Employment in both sectors is expected to diverge across the forecast period. Residential employment is projected to contract by 11% compared to 2024 levels, with losses exclusive to new-housing construction. Employment in the non-residential sector, however, ends the decade 6% above 2024 levels, supported by a large volume of major projects underway in both the engineering construction and ICI buildings segments.
The Vancouver Island construction market, which includes the Capital Region, Cowichan Valley, Nanaimo, Alberni-Clayoquot, Strathcona, Comox Valley, Powell River, Mount Waddington, and Central Coast, experienced a slight contraction in 2024. Although activity in the non-residential sector was elevated, the increase was not enough to offset a decline in residential activity.
Construction employment in the region is expected to increase across the forecast period, with growth exclusive to the non-residential component (9%). Employment in the residential sector is virtually unchanged from 2024 levels by 2034.
BuildForce Canada projects that British Columbia’s construction industry will need to recruit 60,100 additional workers over the forecast period to keep pace with expansion and replacement demands. Of those, 43,800 workers – or 23% of the current construction labour force – are expected to retire during this period.
Although the addition of 37,400 workers under the age of 30 from local recruitment efforts will help to offset some of these retirements, the labour force faces a near-term need for large numbers of experienced skilled workers. By 2034, the industry could face a deficit of 22,700 workers unless anticipated recruitment is increased.
Keeping pace with demand will require a combination of strategies, including maintaining local recruitment and training efforts, particularly from groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, the hiring of workers from other industries with the required skills sets, and the recruitment of immigrants to Canada with skilled trades training or construction experience.
New registrations in British Columbia’s 25 largest construction trades increased by 36% in 2023, as the reintroduction of skilled trade certification in the province led to unprecedent growth. New registrations in the seven trades requiring a skilled trade certification accounted for more than half of the increase observed in 2023. Meanwhile, the number of program completions increased by 4% in 2023, remaining below the level observed over the last decade.
“The key to closing employment gaps and addressing potential shortages of journeypersons is undoubtedly labour force diversification,” says Ferreira. “The industry has made good strides on this front, and it must continue to build on momentum if it is to avoid future labour shortages.”
In 2024, there were approximately 30,700 women employed in British Columbia’s construction industry. Of them, 35% worked directly in on-site construction. Of the 185,600 tradespeople employed in the industry in 2024, women made up 6%.
The Indigenous population is the fastest growing population in Canada, and presents significant recruitment opportunities. In 2023, Indigenous workers accounted for 6.7% of the province’s construction workforce, an increase of approximately 1% since 2014, and more than the share of Indigenous People in the broader provincial labour force. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue to work with Indigenous communities to promote career opportunities to their youth and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention and a welcoming workplace environment where they can build fulfilling careers.
The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. In 2023, newcomers and more established immigrants accounted for just over one quarter of British Columbia’s construction workforce. With the province expected to welcome more than 548,600 new immigrants between 2025 and 2034, based on historical settlement trends and adjusted federal immigration targets, these individuals, if successfully recruited, will make up a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force.
Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and new Canadians could help British Columbia’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.
About BuildForce Canada
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.
Contact
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at ferreira@buildforce.ca or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Chris Atchison
President
British Columbia Construction Association
250-818-9671
Kim Barbero
CEO
Mechanical Contractors Association of British Columbia
604-205-5058
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
403-620-3781
Chris Gardner
President and CEO
Independent Contractors and Businesses Association
604-901-1161
Jeannine Martin
President
Vancouver Regional Construction Association
604-294-3766
Kelly Scott
Chief Executive Officer
BC Road Builders and Heavy Construction Association
604-436-0220
Rob Viccars
Director, Communications & Marketing
Canadian Homebuilder’s Association of British Columbia
604-432-7112 ext. 301