April 1, 2025 – Ottawa, Ontario
Construction investment levels took a step back in Ontario in 2024 as a further contraction in activity in the residential sector more than offset a modest gain in investment in the non-residential sector. Activity in the residential sector was constrained by affordability concerns and elevated interest rates, while activity in the non-residential sector continued to trend upward on the strength of a wide range of major projects across the engineering-construction sector and in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional (ICI) buildings.
BuildForce Canada released its 2025–2034 Construction and Maintenance Looking Forward report for Ontario today. The forecast calls for overall construction growth by 2034, but with growth principally driven by activity in the residential sector.
The outlook for the residential construction sector calls for growth to slow again in 2025, before rising to the end of the decade. Pent-up demand and elevated levels of in-migration spark increasing levels of new housing construction into the early 2030s. Investment is further supplemented by growth in demand for residential renovations across the forecast period.
Investment in the non-residential construction sector, meanwhile, is being driven by a large volume of major projects across all regions and throughout the engineering construction sector and in the construction of ICI buildings. These include major transit, utilities, nuclear, mining, and roads, highways and bridges projects on the engineering construction side, and healthcare, education, and government projects on the ICI construction side.
Activity on these projects is projected to rise to a peak in 2027 before investment levels slow into 2030 and then remain stable, but at an elevated level, to the end of the decade.
These trends combine to elevate employment in both sectors across the forecast period. Employment in residential construction rises 13% above 2024 levels by 2034, with growth greatest in the new housing component. Non-residential construction employment is projected to rise almost continuously across the decade, adding just under 10% above 2024 levels by 2034, with gains in employment relating to ICI buildings and non-residential maintenance offsetting a modest contraction in employment relating to engineering construction.
It is important to note that the investment trends and employment projections presented in this scenario were developed with industry input prior to the emergence of potential trade tensions between Canada and the United States. This forecast therefore does not take into account the possible application of tariffs on Canadian exports to and imports from the United States, nor does it account for any resulting changes in trading patterns between Canada and its other key trading partners.
“Growth in construction activity in Ontario through to the end of the 2020s are expected to tighten labour market conditions for many trades and occupations across both the residential and non-residential sectors in most regions of the province,” says Bill Ferreira, Executive Director of BuildForce Canada. “The province is seeing, and will continue to see, intense levels of demand for both residential and non-residential construction until at least the early 2030s. What’s more, it is unlikely workers will have significant incentives to move among regional markets, given the high levels of demand we are forecasting across the province.”
Although they are interconnected, Ontario’s five regions – Central, Eastern, Greater Toronto Area, Northern, and Southwestern – each feature discrete labour market conditions and can create complementary and competing demands for workers.
Central Ontario
Construction activity in Central Ontario is expected to increase across the forecast period. Although activity in the region’s residential sector has moderated since it peaked in the early 2020s, it is poised to grow again in 2026 and to the end of the decade. Growth is anticipated in demand for new housing as well as residential renovations. Activity in the region’s non-residential sector is more cyclical. Growth is projected into 2027 with ongoing work on several healthcare and industrial projects. Meanwhile, activity in engineering construction is driven primarily by proposed major light rail projects in Hamilton and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge. By 2034, employment is expected to rise in both the residential (14%) and non-residential (15%) sectors.
Eastern Ontario
In Eastern Ontario, elevated interest rates and affordability concerns have slowed residential sector growth in recent years. The outlook calls for growth in the residential sector in 2025 and beyond, with renewed demand for new housing, and for single-detached units in particular. Growth in residential renovations is more gradual. The region’s non-residential construction sector, meanwhile, continues to function at an historically high level. Construction is ongoing on a long list of major projects across both the engineering construction sector and in the construction of industrial, commercial, and institutional buildings. Levels are projected to peak in 2027, after which they remain sustained at an elevated level to the end of the forecast period. Construction employment in the region is expected to grow across the forecast period, with greater gains in the residential sector (19%) than in the non-residential sector (7%).
Greater Toronto Area
The Greater Toronto Area saw another contraction in residential construction activity in 2024. Activity in the sector is expected to return to growth in 2026, with investment in both new housing and residential renovations expected to rise across the forecast period. Non-residential construction activity, meanwhile, continues to be driven by a large volume of major projects that are underway in both the engineering construction sector (in the form of public transit systems, utilities projects, and work on roads, highways, and bridges projects) and in the construction of ICI buildings (on healthcare and education sector projects). Investment levels are projected to rise into 2027 before slowing as work concludes on the region’s major transit projects. Across the forecast period, construction employment in the GTA is projected to rise in both the residential (14%) and non-residential (10%) sectors.
Northern Ontario
Activity in Northern Ontario’s non-residential construction sector slowed in 2024 as several major engineering construction projects concluded. This was offset somewhat by elevated levels of activity in the construction of ICI buildings. Investment levels are expected to fluctuate across the outlook period, but remain relatively elevated given work on major projects, including correctional facilities, a major hospital, and several mining and utilities projects. The outlook for the region’s residential sector calls for new-housing investment to return to growth in 2025 and to carry through to 2026 before stabilizing at an elevated level to 2030 as interest rate pressures ease. These trends combine to contract overall employment in the region, as a gain of just over 4% in non-residential construction employment is not sufficient to offset a contraction of 10% in residential employment.
Southwestern Ontario
Southwestern Ontario saw growth in both the residential and non-residential construction sectors in 2024. The outlook calls for the residential sector to continue to grow to the end of the forecast period, with activity driven primarily by the increased construction of single-detached homes. Investment levels in the region’s non-residential construction sector are projected to fluctuate across the forecast period with the ebb and flow of major projects. They moderate slightly with the conclusion of work on the Gordie Howe International Bridge and NextStar Energy electric battery facility, then are held steady by ongoing nuclear refurbishment work at Bruce Power, and rise thereafter with the start of work at the St Clair Hydrogen power plant and the Windsor Acute Care Hospital. Employment rises in both the residential (11%) and non-residential (4%) sectors across the outlook scenario.
Labour Force Recruitment
Addressing peak levels of demand across the province will be complicated by limited interregional mobility, given the high levels of construction demand forecast across all regions through the forecast period. An aging labour force could complicate matters further. By 2034, as many as 90,300 workers who are projected to exit the industry due to retirement. When combined with the additional 63,800 workers required to keep pace with increasing demand over the forecast period, the industry could face hiring requirements of 154,100 workers by 2034.
These hiring requirements could be partially addressed by the expected recruitment of 102,200 new entrant workers under the age of 30 from within the province over the forecast period. However, even with these projected additions, the industry could face a potential shortfall of almost 52,000 workers by 2034.
Keeping pace with demand will require a combination of strategies, including maintaining local recruitment and training efforts, particularly from groups traditionally under-represented in the construction labour force, the hiring of workers from other industries with the required skills sets, and the recruitment of immigrants to Canada with skilled trades training or construction experience.
In 2023, new registrations across Ontario’s 30 largest construction trade programs rose by 10% compared to the previous year, setting a record for the number of new apprentices registered in the province. While several trades reported year-over-year gains of 50% or more, new registrations in several others remain notably lower than the levels seen over the past decade.
Meanwhile, efforts are ongoing to enhance the recruitment of individuals from groups traditionally under-represented in the province’s construction labour force, such as women, Indigenous People, and newcomers to Canada.
In 2024, there were approximately 79,410 women employed in Ontario’s construction industry, an increase of almost 2,000 from 2023. Of them, 28% worked on site, directly on construction projects. However, as a share of the 445,900 tradespeople employed in the province’s construction industry, women made up just 5% of the workforce in 2024.
The Indigenous population is the fastest growing population in Canada and therefore presents recruitment opportunities. In 2023, Indigenous People accounted for 3.4% of Ontario’s construction labour force. That figure is a slight increase from levels seen in 2014, and exceeds the percentage of Indigenous People seen in the province’s overall labour force. As the Indigenous population continues to grow, the sector must continue to work with Indigenous communities to promote career opportunities to their youth and invest in initiatives that foster long-term retention and a welcoming workplace environment where they can build fulfilling careers.
The construction industry is also committed to the recruitment of newcomers to Canada. Based on historical settlement patterns and adjusted federal immigration targets, Ontario is expected to welcome just over two million new immigrants between 2025 and 2034, making these individuals, if successfully recruited, a key and growing part of the industry’s future labour force. Increasing the participation rate of women, Indigenous People, and new Canadians could help Ontario’s construction industry address its future labour force needs.
About BuildForce Canada
BuildForce Canada is a national industry-led organization that represents all sectors of Canada’s construction industry. Its mandate is to support the labour market development needs of the construction and maintenance industry. As part of these activities, BuildForce works with key industry stakeholders, including contractors, proponents of construction, labour providers, governments, and training providers to identify both demand and supply trends that will impact labour force capacity in the sector, and supports the career searches of job seekers wanting to work in the industry. BuildForce also leads programs and initiatives that support workforce upskilling, workforce productivity improvements, improvements to training modalities, human resource tools to support the adoption of industry best practices, as well as other value-added initiatives focused on supporting the industry’s labour force development needs. Visit www.buildforce.ca.
Contact
For further information, contact Bill Ferreira, Executive Director, BuildForce Canada, at ferreira@buildforce.ca or 613-569-5552 ext. 2220.
This report was produced with the support and input of a variety of provincial construction and maintenance industry stakeholders. For local industry reaction to this latest BuildForce Canada report, please contact:
Mark Arsenault
Business Manager and Secretary Treasurer
Provincial Building and Construction Trades Council of Ontario
647-402-0390
Mike Carter
Chief Executive Officer
London & District Construction Association
519-453-5322
Giovanni Cautillo
President
Ontario General Contractors Association
905-671-3969
Ian Cunningham
President
Council of Ontario Construction Associations
416-476-4774
John A. DeVries
President & GM
Ottawa Construction Association
613-236-0488, ext. 10
Paul de Jong
President
Progressive Contractors Association of Canada
403-620-3781
Tony Fanelli
Executive Director
Construction Labour Relations Association – Ontario
647-296-3402
Andrew Pariser
Vice-President
RESCON
416-970-7665
Wayne Peterson
Executive Director
Construction Employers Coordinating Council of Ontario
905-516-6693